Global RAN Market Stabilizes After 5G Peak, with 6G Driving Future Growth
Key Highlights
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Global RAN market conditions are stabilizing after steep declines in 2023 and 2024 that followed the 5G investment peak, according to Dell’Oro Group.
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The RAN market lost nearly $10 billion in global revenue over the past two years, reflecting slower mobile data traffic growth and tighter operator CapEx.
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RAN spending is projected to account for approximately 20% to 25% of total wireless CapEx on average throughout the forecast period.
According to a newly published forecast from Dell’Oro Group, global Radio Access Network (RAN) market conditions are stabilizing following sharp declines in 2023 and 2024 after the 5G investment peak. In the absence of near-term growth catalysts, demand for RAN is expected to remain subdued until capital spending begins to ramp with the transition to 6G.
"The past couple of years have been extremely challenging with RAN shedding nearly $10 billion in revenue globally," said Stefan Pongratz, VP for RAN Market Research at Dell'Oro Group.
"While there are still risks in both directions and probably still tilted to the downside due to slowing data traffic growth, the improved sentiment around 6G can be interpreted as a positive, bolstering this assumption that there could be material 6G revenue by 2030," continued Pongratz.
Additional Highlights from the Mobile RAN 5-Year January 2026 Forecast Report:
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The long-term outlook remains unchanged: RAN is not a structural growth market, recording a 0% CAGR between 2000 and 2025. However, investment cycles fluctuate as operators align capital spending with new spectrum availability, technology transitions, and capacity demand.
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The base-case forecast anticipates stable RAN revenue and CapEx trends, driving continued improvements in capital intensity ratios before 6G investments begin toward the end of the forecast period.
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Worldwide RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 1% CAGR over the next five years, as steep declines in LTE spending offset ongoing 5G investments and early 6G deployments.
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Upside and downside scenarios remain possible, depending on mobile data traffic growth, the timing of capacity expansions, and operators’ emphasis on network differentiation.
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RAN spending is expected to account for approximately 20% to 25% of total wireless CapEx on average throughout the forecast period.
About the Report
Dell’Oro Group’s Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report offers a complete overview of the RAN market by region – North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Asia Pacific, China, and Caribbean & Latin America. The report includes detailed tables covering manufacturers' revenue and unit shipments for 5G NR, 5G NR Sub 7 GHz, 5G NR mmW, and LTE base stations. The report also covers Open RAN, Virtualized RAN, small cells, and Massive MIMO.
Source: Dell'Oro Group
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