Direct-to-Device Technology Enters Breakout Phase as LEO and 5G Converge

As low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite deployments accelerate and 5G standards evolve, direct-to-device (D2D) technology is rapidly emerging as the bridge between mobile and satellite communications. By extending mobile network coverage into space, D2D addresses longstanding connectivity gaps across remote, maritime, and disaster-affected regions—while unlocking compelling new opportunities for telecom operators and satellite providers.

Government support and advances in space transportation are further propelling the development of D2D technology forward. The U.S. Department of Defense has earmarked US$134 million in its fiscal year 2025 budget (October 2024–September 2025) for commercial satellite bandwidth procurement. Beneficiaries—including SpaceX, Iridium, and Viasat—are expected to channel this funding into next-generation technology development.

 At the same time, SpaceX’s Starship heavy-lift rocket, capable of carrying payloads of several hundred tons, is poised to drive launch costs below US$200 per kilogram once fully commercialized. This step-change in affordability is set to lower market barriers for satellite ventures and spurring diversified applications.

Major global players are now pushing D2D toward commercial reality. SpaceX and T-Mobile have launched initial services, while AST SpaceMobile and Lynk Global are working to expand satellite constellations. With 3GPP Release 19 slated for completion around 2027, D2D services supporting voice and real-time communications could reach commercial stages as early as 2028—potentially signaling a new growth cycle for the mobile industry.

Vehicle connectivity is expected to drive the next wave of expansion. According to the 5G Automotive Association’s “Visionary 2030 Roadmap,” IoT-based non-terrestrial networks (IoT-NTN) will enable emergency rescue communications by 2027, followed by widespread use of NR-NTN for real-time voice services after 2030. Companies across the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan are already investing in automotive and glass antennas, signaling the convergence of satellite communication and automotive electronics.

Still, the D2D market is in its early stages, challenged by spectrum licensing, operator investment cycles, and chip integration. Market acceleration will depend heavily on two milestones: AST SpaceMobile’s commercial rollout and the finalization of 3GPP Release 19. Should both progress on schedule, D2D could enter a rapid expansion phase by 2030, with annual revenues projected to exceed US$10 billion.

DIGITIMES expects sustained investment and ongoing technological advances to fast-track ecosystem maturity—positioning D2D as a transformative force reshaping the future of global satellite communications.

For more details on NTNs, check out NTN Convergence: How Satellite and Mobile Networks are Powering the 6G Era.

Source: DIGITIMES ASIA