Global Telecom CapEx Expected to Normalize
Following two years of capital expenditure (CapEx) reductions, global Telecom CapEx was stable in the second quarter of 2025 on a year-over-year basis, bolstering the stabilization narrative previously communicated by Dell'Oro Group.
"CapEx is past the peak, but it is not falling off a cliff," said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom CapEx research at Dell'Oro Group. "Still, there will be room to improve capital intensity ratios as operators are reallocating away from blanket coverage builds and toward capacity, quality, automation, and energy performance. After four years of rising CapEx-to-revenue ratios, capital intensity declined significantly in 2024 compared with the 2022 peak. The ratio is expected to stay stable in 2025, ease slightly thereafter, and then edge higher toward the latter part of the forecast period," continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from their September 2025 Telecom CapEx report:
- Even with the improved conditions in 2Q, 1H25 CapEx was down year-over-year, reflecting steeper declines in the first quarter.
- The outlook has not changed materially. Investment conditions are expected to stabilize in 2025, though it will still be a challenging year from a CapEx and telecom equipment revenue perspective.
- CapEx/revenue is projected to approach 15% by 2029, down 3 percentage points from the peak, reflecting the more upbeat revenue vs. CapEx forecast.
- Wireless capital intensity is projected to approach 12% to 13% in 2029, down 5 to 6 percentage points since the 5G peak.
The Dell'Oro Group report provides in-depth coverage of more than 50 telecom operators highlighting carrier revenue, capital expenditure, and capital intensity trends. The report provides actual and 3-year forecast details by carrier, by region by country (United States, Canada, China, India, Japan, and South Korea), and by technology (wireless/wireline).
Source: Dell'Oro Group