5G Forecast Changes Due to New Spectrum Policy
After reviewing recent legislation in the "Big Beautiful Bill" and gathering input from American telcos, Mobile Experts, Inc. updated their forecast series for 5G and 6G base stations this week.
On the positive side, the legislation reinstated the spectrum auction authority for the FCC, so new spectrum can be licensed again for commercial use. This was not a surprise and didn't impact the Mobile Experts forecast.
On the other hand, the bill excludes two specific bands, at 3.1 – 3.45 GHz and 7.4 – 8.4 GHz, which were hoped to provide wideband options to support high-capacity mobile traffic. Instead, the bill designated bands at 2.7-2.9 GHz, 4.4 – 4.9 GHz, and 7.25 – 7.4 GHz for study as well as directing FCC to auction 100 MHz between 3.98 – 4.2 GHz.
The impact is a mixed bag. For 6G, many telcos had hoped for a 400 – 500 MHz wide block of spectrum between 7.1 GHz and 8.4 GHz despite the presence of incumbent users. This legislation shuts down that possibility in the United States, but opens up specific opportunities in four different bands. Narrow blocks of spectrum may result in more radios in some places, but less enthusiasm for nationwide investment by the operators.
"The impact on our forecast is pretty complex here," said Joe Madden, Principal Analyst. "We've increased the number of products to be sold in the U.S. market, and we've firmed up the timing of the next investment wave…but the number of sites deployed could be lower."
The their research on mobile infrastructure forecasts 4G, 5G, and 6G radio shipments vary accurately, by triangulation between operators, network vendors, and component vendors of many kinds. When the number of filters matches with the number of power amplifiers, the Mobile Experts team has high confidence in their tracking process.
Deliverables in the research series include:
- Mobile Infrastructure revenue and market share tracking.
- Base station shipments and global system-level breakdowns by region, power level, MIMO level, frequency, etc.
- Radio transceiver analysis with specific tracking of PA, filter, data converter, and baseband semiconductor revenue and market share.
- Virtual RAN and Open RAN adoption forecasts.
- Small cell shipment, revenue, and market share tracking.
- Cost analysis to illustrate the ROI for operators to invest in 6G.
Source: Mobile Experts, Inc.